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The World Is Still Short of Everything. Get Used to It.

Like most people in the developed world, Kirsten Gjesdal had long taken for granted her ability to order whatever she needs and then watch the …

The World Is Still Short of Everything. Get Used to It.

Like most people in the developed world, Kirsten Gjesdal had long taken for granted her ability to order whatever she needs and then watch the goods arrive, without any thought about the factories, container ships and trucks involved in delivery.

Not anymore.

At her kitchen supply store in Brookings, S.D., Ms. Gjesdal has given up stocking place mats, having wearied of telling customers that she can only guess when more will come. She recently received a pot lid she had purchased eight months earlier. She has grown accustomed to paying surcharges to cover the soaring shipping costs of the goods she buys. She has already placed orders for Christmas items like wreaths and baking pans.

“It’s nuts,” she said. “It’s definitely not getting back to normal.”

The challenges confronting Ms. Gjesdal’s shop, Carrot Seed Kitchen, are a testament to the breadth and persistence of the chaos roiling the global economy, as manufacturers and the shipping industry contend with an unrelenting pandemic.

Delays, product shortages and rising costs continue to bedevil businesses large and small. And consumers are confronted with an experience once rare in modern times: no stock available, and no idea when it will come in.

In the face of an enduring shortage of computer chips, Toyota this month announced that it would slash its global production of cars by 40 percent. Factories around the world are limiting operations — despite powerful demand for their wares — because they cannot buy metal parts, plastics and other raw materials. Construction companies are paying more for paint, lumber and hardware, while waiting weeks and sometimes months to receive what they need.

A container ship in Port Miami, Miami Beach, this month. Shipping is at the center of what has gone awry in the global economy.Credit…Scott McIntyre for The New York Times

In Britain, the National Health Service recently advised that it must delay some blood tests because of a shortage of needed gear. A recent survey by the Confederation of British Industry found the worst shortages of parts in the history of the index, which started in 1977.

The Great Supply Chain Disruption is a central element of the extraordinary uncertainty that continues to frame economic prospects worldwide. If the shortages persist well into next year, that could advance rising prices on a range of commodities. As central banks from the United States to Australia debate the appropriate level of concern about inflation, they must consider a question none can answer with full confidence: Are the shortages and delays merely temporary mishaps accompanying the resumption of business, or something more insidious that could last well into next year?

“There is a genuine uncertainty here,” said Adam S. Posen, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee and now the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Normalcy might be “another year or two” away, he added.

In March, as global shipping prices spiked and as many goods became scarce, conventional wisdom had it that the trouble was largely the result of a surplus of orders reflecting extraordinary shifts in demand. Consumers in the United States and other wealthy countries had taken pandemic lockdowns as the impetus to add gaming consoles and exercise bikes to their homes, swamping the shipping industry with cargo, and exhausting the supplies of many components. After a few months, many assumed, factories would catch up with demand, and ships would work through the backlog.

Construction companies are paying more for lumber and hardware, while waiting weeks and sometimes months to receive what they need.Credit…Karen E. Segrave for The New York Times

That is not what happened.

Just as the health crisis has proved stubborn and unpredictable, the turmoil in international commerce has gone on longer than many expected because shortages and delays in some products have made it impossible to make others.

At the same time, many companies had slashed their inventories in recent years, embracing lean production to cut costs and boost profits. That left minimal margin for error.

A giant ship lodged in the Suez Canal earlier this year, halting traffic on a vital waterway linking Europe to Asia for a week, added to the mayhem on the seas. So did a series of temporary coronavirus-related closures of key ports in China.

The world has gained a painful lesson in how interconnected economies are across vast distances, with delay and shortages in any one place rippling out nearly everywhere.

A shipping container that cannot be unloaded in Los Angeles because too many dock workers are in quarantine is a container that cannot be loaded with soybeans in Iowa, leaving buyers in Indonesia waiting, and potentially triggering a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia.

An unexpected jump in orders for televisions in Canada or Japan exacerbates the shortage of computer chips, forcing auto manufacturers to slow production lines from South Korea to Germany to Brazil.

“There is no end in sight,” said Alan Holland, chief executive of Keelvar, a company based in Cork, Ireland, that makes software used to manage supply chains. “Everybody should be assuming we are going to have an extended period of disruptions.”

PP Control & Automation designs and builds systems for companies that make machinery for a wide range of industries.Credit…Mary Turner for The New York Times

In the West Midlands of England, Tony Hague has tired of trying to predict when the madness will end.

His company, PP Control & Automation, designs and builds systems for companies that make machinery used in a range of industries, from food processing to power generation. Demand for his products is expanding, and his roughly 240 employees have been working at full capacity. Still, he is contending with shortages.

One customer in England that makes machines to seal packaged food has been hobbled by its inability to secure needed parts. Its supplier in Japan used to take four to six weeks to deliver key devices; now it takes half a year. The Japanese factory has struggled to secure its own electrical components, most of them produced in Asia and using computer chips. Auto manufacturers’ desperation to secure chips has made those components harder to obtain.

“It’s definitely getting worse,” Mr. Hague said. “It hasn’t bottomed out yet.”

For the global economy, shipping is at the center of the explanation for what has gone awry.

As Americans enduring lockdowns filled basements with treadmills and kitchens with mixers, they generated extra demand for Chinese-made factory goods. At the same time, millions of shipping containers — the building blocks of sea cargo — were scattered around the globe, used to deliver protective equipment like face masks.

The container shortages were exacerbated by delays in unloading cargo at American ports, because workers stayed home to slow the pandemic’s spread.

Then, in late March, came the fiasco in the Suez Canal, the pathway for about 12 percent of the world’s trade. With hundreds of other ships blocked, the impact played out for months.

In May, China shut down a huge container port near Shenzhen — one of the nation’s leading industrial cities — after a small outbreak of a coronavirus variant. The port did not resume operations for several weeks.

Then, in the middle of August, Chinese authorities shut down a container terminal near the city of Ningbo, after one employee tested positive. Ningbo is the world’s third-largest container port, so its closure held the potential to snowball into a global event, even threatening the supply of goods to American stores in time for Black Friday sales around Thanksgiving.

By Wednesday, the Ningbo terminal was back in operation. But China’s decision to close it because of a single Covid case resonated as a warning that the government might shut other ports.

Eric Poses has seen international shipping costs for his board games soar, from $6,000 to $7,000 before the pandemic to $26,000 now, and expected to go even higher.Credit…Scott McIntyre for The New York Times

In Miami Beach, Eric Poses, an inventor of board games, developed a product aptly named for the pandemic: The Worst-Case Scenario Card Game, a title that could also be applied to his experience relying on China to make and ship the product.

Before the pandemic, shipping a 40-foot container of games from Shanghai to the warehouse he uses in Michigan cost $6,000 to $7,000, Mr. Poses said. His next shipment, scheduled to leave China in mid-September, will cost at least $26,000. And his freight agent warned him that the price will most likely rise, to $35,000, because of rail and trucking difficulties in the United States.

Cheap and reliable sea transport has long been a foundational part of international trade, allowing manufacturers to shift production far and wide in search of low-wage labor and cheap materials.

Columbia Sportswear has typified the trend, expanding from its base in Portland, Ore., to become a global outdoor gear brand. The company has relied on factories in Asia to make its goods and taken the ocean cargo network for granted.

“It’s sort of like, everyday when you get up in the morning, you turn on the lights and the lights always work,” said Timothy Boyle, Columbia’s chief executive.

But the price of moving goods to the United States from Asia is up as much as tenfold since the beginning of the pandemic, and Columbia might have to reconsider its traditional mode.

“It’s a question of how long this lasts,” Mr. Boyle said.

When a small virus outbreak closed a huge container port near Shenzhen from late May through late June, huge numbers of extra containers flooded other Chinese ports like Shanghai, shown here.Credit…Keith Bradsher/The New York Times

Some trade experts suggest that product shortages are now being exacerbated by rational reactions to recent events. Because of the pandemic, humanity now knows the fear of running out of toilet paper. That experience might be driving consumers and businesses to order more and earlier than previously needed.

Ordinarily, the peak demand for trans-Pacific shipping begins in late summer and ends in the winter, after holiday season products are stocked. But last winter, the peak season never ended, and now it has merged with the rush for this holiday season — reinforcing the pressure on factories, warehouses, ships and trucks.

“We have this vicious cycle of all the natural human instincts responding, and making the problem worse,” said Willy C. Shih, an international trade expert at Harvard Business School. “I don’t see it getting better until next year.”

Li You contributed research.

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escortSıhhiye escortRus escortMamak escortMamak escortGölbaşı escortsertleştirici haplarkent switch fiyatKeno Club Sigaraparliament aqua bluemarlboro double fusionGauloises Sigarakent switchdjarum blackLeader SigaraAnadolu yakası escortAtaşehir escortBostancı escortErenköy Escortavrupa yakası escortAtaköy EscortAvcılar EscortBahçeşehir Escortözel escortlaranal escortçıtır escortelit escortAnadolu Yakası escortAtaşehir escortbağdat caddesi escortBostancı escortGöztepe Escortİstanbul EscortKadıköy EscortKartal EscortKurtköy EscortMaltepe EscortPendik EscortŞerifali EscortTuzla EscortÜmraniye escortÜsküdar EscortAnadolu Yakası EscortAtaşehir escortBostancı EscortGöztepe EscortAvrupa Yakası EscortAksaray escortAtaköy EscortAvcılar Escortİstanbul EscortAtaşehir Elit EscortAtaşehir Esmer EscortAtaşehir Genç EscortAtaşehir Olgun EscortAtaşehir Sarışın EscortAtaşehir Şişman EscortAtaşehir Sınırsız EscortAtaşehir Ucuz EscortAtaşehir Yabancı EscortAteşehir Escort BayanBağdat Caddesi EscortBağdat 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escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortsex hikayeleriadana escortadıyaman escortafyon escortağrı escortaksaray escortamasya escortankara escortantalya escortantep escortardahan escortartvin escortaydın escortbalıkesir escortbartın escortbatman escortbayburt escortbilecik escortbingol escortbitlis escortbolu escortburdur escortbursa escortçanakkale escortçankırı escortçorum escortdenizli escortdiyarbakır escortdüzce escortedirne escortelazığ escorterzincan escorterzurum escorteskişehir escortgiresun escortgümüşhane escorthakkari escorthatay escortığdır escortısparta escortistanbul escortizmir escortizmit escortkarabük escortkaraman escortkars escortkastamonu escortkayseri escortkıbrıs escortkilis escortkırıkkale escortkırklareli escortkırşehir escortkocaeli escortkonya escortkütahya escortmalatya escortmanisa escortmaraş escortmardin escortmersin escortmuğla escortmuş escortnevşehir escortniğde escortordu escortosmaniye escortrize escortsakarya escortsamsun escortsiirt escortsinop escortşırnak escortsivas escorttekirdağ escorttokat escorttrabzon escorttunceli escortzonguldak escorturfa escortuşak escortvan escortyalova escortyozgat escorterkeklerde sertleşmeye iyi gelen ilaçlarsertleştirici hap eczane fiyatlarıvega 100 mg hapfuck googledolandırıcı hesap satışıbacklink alToscanello Blu Anice AnasonToscanello CappuccinoToscanello Cioccolato ÇikolataToscanello GrappaToscanello LimoncelloToscanello MacchiatoToscanello Rosso CaffeToscanello RubinoToscanello VanilyaToscanello PuroToscanello Cappuccino PuroAvrupa yakası escortAksaray escortAtaköy escortAtaşehir escortAvcılar escortBahçelievler escortBahçeşehir escortBakırköy escortBaşakşehir escortBeşiktaş escortBeylikdüzü escortBostancı escortBüyükçekmece escortEsenyurt escortEtiler escortFatih escortHalkalı escortKadıköy escortKartal escortKüçükçekmece escortMaltepe escortMecidiyeköy escortMerter escortPendik escortRus escortŞirinevler escortŞişli escortTaksim escortTopkapı escortümraniye escortZeytinburnu escortgaziantep escortalanya escorttekirdağ escortşanlıurfa escortşanlıurfa escortsamsun escortbolu escortbodrum escortbeylikdüzü escortyozgat escortyalova escortvan escortuşak escorturfa escorttrabzon escorttokat escorttokat escortsivas escorturfa escortsakarya escortsakarya escortrize escortniğde escortniğde escortmuğla escortmuğla escortmarmaris escortmardin escortmardin escortmaraş escortmanisa escortmanisa escortkütahya escortkocaeli escortkocaeli escortkıbrıs escortkastamonu escortkars escortısparta escortgümüşhane escortgiresun escortgaziantep escortzonguldak escortzonguldak escortyozgat escortyalova escortvan escorttrabzon escorttekirdağ escortsivas escortsamsun escortordu escortmersin escortmaraş escortmalatya escortkütahya escortkuşadası escortkonya escortkayseri escortkastamonu escortısparta escorthatay escortgiresun escorteskişehir escorterzurum escorttekirdağ escortdiyarbakır 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escortgümüşhane escortgiresun escortrize escortgiresun escorteskişehir escorterzincan escortdiyarbakır escortdidim escortburdur escortbeylikdüzü escorttokat escortmersin escortmanisa escortmalatya escortbolu escortbeylikdüzü escortmalatya escortadana escortafyon escorteskişehir escorterzurum escorterzurum escorterzincan escortelazığ escortelazığ escortelazığ escortelazığ escortedirne escortedirne escortdüzce escortdiyarbakır escortdidim escortdenizli escortçorum escortçeşme escortçeşme escortçanakkale escortçanakkale escortçanakkale escortburdur escortbolu escortbodrum escortbodrum escortbalıkesir escortaydın escortartvin escortartvin escortantep escortantep escortalanya escortağrı escortafyon escortadana escortantalya escortalanya escortalanya escortAmazon Prime izleBeIN Connect izleBlutv izleDisney Plus izleexxen izleGain TV izleNetflix izleAmazon prime izleBlutv izleDisney Plus izlebeylikdüzü escorteryaman escortcaptain blackkalpli sigarasertleştirici hap eczane fiyatlarışişme bebeksertleşme sağlayıcı ilaçlar ve isimleriviagra fiyatManchester Double Drive SigaraKing Edward imperial puroadana escort1xbet kayıt1xbet casino1xbetpenis sertleştirici cinsel haplarescortAydın escortMuğla escortSinop escortTekirdağ escortYalova escortRize escortAmasya escortBalıkesir escortÇanakkale escortBolu escortErzincan escortVan escortYozgat escortZonguldak escortAfyon escortAdıyaman escortBilecik escortAksaray escortAğrı escortBitlis escortSiirt escortÇorum escortBurdur escortEdirne escortDüzce escortErzurum escortKırklareli escortGiresun escortIsparta escortTrabzon escortSivas escortŞanlıurfa escortTokat escortManisa escortOrdu escortOsmaniye escortArdahan escortKaraman escortBatman escortBayburt escortElazığ escortBingöl escortGümüşhane escortUşak escortIğdır escortBartın escortNevşehir escortKastamonu escortMaraş escortKırşehir escortMardin escortKırıkkale escortKarabük escortKars escortsertleştirici hap eczane520 kalpli sigara elmalı520 kalpli sigaras20 kalpli sigaraİstanbul escort bayanİstanbul escortİstanbul escortsEscort istanbulistanbul escort bayanİstanbul escortEscort istanbulistanbul escortEscort bayanBayan escortescortEscort bayanbayan escortescortAnkara escort bayanEscort ankaraEscort Bayan İstanbulümraniye escortüsküdar escortzeytinburnu escortkadıköy escortkağıthane escortkartal escortmaltepe escortkeçiören escortmanavgat escortalanya escortbodrum escortkuşadası escortdidim escortarnavutköy escortsilifke escortbelek escortşişli escortpendik escortkarşıyaka escortseyhan escortnilüfer escortesenler escortbeylikdüzü escortİstanbul escortİstanbul escort bayanEscort istanbulBayan escortEscort bayanescortseoboşalmayı geciktirici haplargeciktirici kremlergeciktirici spreylerpenis büyütücü haplarbayan azdırıcı damlabayan azdırıcı haperken boşalma geciktirici ilaçlarpenis büyütücü çeşitleribayan cinsel istek arttırıcılarcialis fiyatıviagra fiyatlarıbayan cinsel istek arttırıcılarerken boşalmayı geciktirici ilaç çeşitleripenis büyütücü ürün çeşitlerierken boşalmayı geciktirici ilaç çeşitleribayan cinsel istek arttırıcı damlageciktirici sprey çeşitlerien iyi geciktirici kremkadın istek arttırıcı damlaen iyi bayan azdırıcı ilaçcialis fiyatı eczaneviagra eczane fiyatıerken boşalmayı geciktirici haplargeciktirici krem çeşitleripenis büyütücü haplarcinsel gücü arttırıcı ilaçlarbayan azdırıcı ilaçlaren iyi geciktirici ilaç isimleripenis büyütücü kremen iyi bayan cinsel istek arttırıcılargeciktirici haplargeciktirici kremler çeşitlerikadın azdırıcı çeşitlerigeciktirici ilaç çeşitleripenis büyütücü çeşitlerieczane cialis fiyatıviagra eczane fiyatlarıbayan azdırıcı ilaçlaren iyi geciktiricilerpenis büyütücülerbayan uyarıcılarerken boşalmayı geciktiren ilaçlarpenis büyütücülerviagra eczane satış fiyatlarıeczane cialis fiyatıerken boşalmayı geciktirici ilaçlargeciktirici krem fiyatlarıgeciktirici sprey eczaneen etkili büyütücülerbayan istek arttırıcı çeşitlerien iyi bayan cinsel istek artırıcılarerken boşalmayı geciktirici ilaçcialis eczanecialis eczanede kaç tlADANA ESCORTANKARA ESCORTANTALYA ESCORTMERSİN ESCORTİZMİR ESCORTKAYSERİ ESCORTKONYA ESCORTAnadolu Yakası Escortavrupa yakası escortcialis fiyatıcinsel ereksiyon ilaçlarıcialis fiyatlarıviagra fiyatıcialis fiyatı eczaneFlynta 20 Mgkamagra 100 mgOrcafil 20 MgLifta 5 MgHardcis 5 MgLex 20 MgLevitra 20 MgPriligy 30 MgVigaroo 100 MgHardcis 20 MgAfilta 20 MgHardcis 20 Mgdegralifta 20 mgankara escortantalya escortizmir escortmersin escortCinsel sağlık ürünleriCinsel performans ürünleriGeciktirici ürünlerSertleştirici haplarKamagra jelKamagra jel fiyatKamagra jel eczaneVega 100 mgVega 100 mg fiyatViagraViagra fiyatViagra 100 mg fiyatViagra 30 lu fiyatCialisCialis fiyatCialis 20 mg fiyatCialis 100 mg fiyatCialis 30 lu tablet fiyatCialis 5 mg fiyatankara escortantalya escortizmir escortAdıyaman EscortArtvin EscortBilecik EscortBingöl EScortBitlis EscortBurdur EscortÇankırı EscortÇorum EscortGiresun EscortGümüşhane EscortKars EscortKastamonu EscortKırklareli EscortKırşehir EscortNevşehir EscortErzincan EscortNiğde EscortOrdu EscortSiirt EscortSinop EscortBayburt EscortKaraman EscortKırıkkale EscortBatman EscortŞırnak EscortBartın EscortArdahan Escortığdır EscortKarabük EscortOsmaniye EscortDüzce EscortKilis EscortAdana EscortAnkara EscortAntalya EscortAydın EscortBursa EscortDenizli EscortDiyarbakır EscortEskişehir EscortAntep EscortHatay EscortMersin Escortizmir EscortKayseri EscortKocaeli EscortKonya EscortMalatya EscortMardin EscortSakarya EscortSamsun EscortTrabzon EscortYalova EscortAdıyaman EscortAfyon EscortVan EscortAğrı EscortAmasya EscortBalıkesir EscortBilecik EscortBolu EscortBurdur EscortÇanakkale EscortEdirne EscortElazığ EscortErzincan EscortErzurum Escortısparta EscortKars EscortKastamonu EscortManisa EscortKütahya EscortMuğla EscortRize EscortSivas EscortTekirdağ EscortUrfa EscortOrdu EscortNevşehir EscortMaraş EscortZonguldak Escortadana escortalanya escortankara escortantalya escortaydın escortbursa escortçorlu escortdenizli escortdiyarbakır escortelazığ escorteskişehir escortgaziantep escortizmir escortkayseri escortkocaeli escortkonya escortmalatya escortmersin escortpendik escortsakarya escortsamsun escorttrabzon escortadana escortankara escortalanya escortantalya escortaydın escortbursa escortçorlu escortdenizli escortdiyarbakır escortelazığ escorteskişehir escortgaziantep escortistanbul escortizmir escortizmit escortkayseri escortkocaeli escortkonya escortmalatya escortmersin escortsakarya escortsamsun escorttrabzon escort520 Kalpli Sigara Kavunlu520 Kalpli Sigara Liçi Kral Meyvesicialis eczane fiyatı 2023viagra eczane fiyatı 2023free shopbayan azdırıcılarerken boşalmayı geciktiricilerviagra fiyatı 2023cialis fiyatı 2023eczanede satılan sertleştirici ilaçlarbeylikdüzü escortcialiscialiscialis 100 mgviagra 30 lu tabletkadın azdırıcıereksiyon haplarıgeciktirici spreypenis büyütmeviagrakamagracinsel ilaçlarcialis 5 mgcialis 20 mgcinsel eczanebayan azdırıcı eczaneistek arttırıcı damlacinsel güç arttırıcı ilaçlareczanelerde satılan geciktiricilerkamagra jelorjinal viagracialis 5 mgviagraeczane sağlıkcialis fiyatviagra fiyatkamagra jelcialis 100 mgviagra 30 lucialis 20 mggeciktirici spreybayan azdırıcı ilaçlarkadın azdırıcı damlasertleştirici ilaçlarpenis büyütücücialis 5 mgcialiscialis 5 mgKamagra jelCialis fiyatViagra fiyatEreksiyon haplarıCinsel sağlık ürünleriCinsel ilaçlarBayan azdırıcı damlaCialis fiyatViagra fiyatKamagra jelGeciktirici spreyCinsel performans artırıcı ürünlerBayan azdırıcı hapCialis 30 lu tabletpenis sertleştirici ilaç isimlericialis fiyatı 2023 eczaneviagra eczane satış fiyatı 2023lifta fiyatı eczanepenis sertleştirici ilaç çeşitlerieczane cialis fiyatıorijinal viagra fiyatıfx15 orijinal zayıflama hapıyapay kızlık zarı siparişvajina daraltıcı kremyalova escortmuğla escortaydın escorttrabzon escortkütahya escortçanakkale escortbalıkesir escortmanisa escorttekirdağ escortkahramanmaraş escortelazığ escortsivas escortşanlıurfa escorterzurum escortamasya escortvan escortrize escortgiresun escortordu escorttokat escortyozgat escortçorum escortmond sigarabayan azdırıcı damla çeşitlerikamagra jel eczane fiyatıafyon escortbalıkesir escortkütahya escortmanisa escortbolu escortmuğla escortbodrum escortmarmaris escortedirne escortkeşan escortriz escorterzincan escorthatay escortçorlu escortDating Escortkonya escortmersin escortadana escortbursa escortmalatya escortkayseri escortaydın escortMilano Coffee Sigara Kahve AromalıMilano Gum Sigara Sakız Aromalıoris sigaraelazığ escortkocaeli escortizmir escortkayseri escortgaziantep escortadana escortkonya escortümraniye escortizmit escorteskişehir escortmersin escortIstanbul Escortsamsun escortvan escortaydın escortedirne escortaksaray escortantalya escortescort antalyaescortAdana Escortadıyaman escortafyon escortağrı escortaksaray escortamasya escortankara escortantalya escortardahan escortartvin escortaydın escortbalıkesir escortpung hile satın albartın escortbatman escortbayburt escortbilecik 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