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Olaf Scholz Is Running as the Next Angela Merkel, and It Seems to be Working.

BERLIN — When Olaf Scholz asked his fellow Social Democrats to nominate him as their candidate for chancellor, some inside his own camp publicly …

Olaf Scholz Is Running as the Next Angela Merkel, and It Seems to be Working.

BERLIN — When Olaf Scholz asked his fellow Social Democrats to nominate him as their candidate for chancellor, some inside his own camp publicly wondered if the party should bother fielding a candidate at all.

Germany’s oldest party was not just trailing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives but had slipped into third place behind the Greens with a humiliating 14 percent in the polls. As recently as June, the German media was framing the contest to succeed Ms. Merkel as a two-way race between her conservatives and the ascendant Green Party.

But with the Sept. 26 national elections fast approaching, Mr. Scholz and his once-moribund party have unexpectedly become the favorites to lead the next government in Europe’s biggest democracy.

“It’s really touching to see how many citizens trust me to be the next chancellor,” a beaming Mr. Scholz told hundreds of supporters at a recent campaign event in Berlin, as he stood in front of a giant screenproclaiming: “Scholz will tackle it.”

Ten months after Joseph R. Biden Jr. won the U.S. presidency for the Democrats, there is a real chance that Germany will be led by a center-left chancellor for the first time in 16 years. Not since the second term of former President Bill Clinton have both the White House and the German chancellery been in the hands of center-left leaders.

“The atmosphere is just amazing right now — we’re almost in disbelief,” said Annika Klose, who is a Social Democrat candidate for Parliament and watched Mr. Scholz speak.“Since I joined the party in 2011, every election result was worse than the last.”

With 25 percent in recent polls, Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats have overtaken both the Green Party and the conservative party of Chancellor Angela Merkel.Credit…Gordon Welters for The New York Times

It’s not that Germans have suddenly shifted left. Mr. Scholz, who has served as Ms. Merkel’s finance minister and vice chancellor for the past four years, is in many ways more associated with the conservative-led coalition government than his own party. Two years ago, he lost the party’s leadership contest to a leftist duo, which attacked him for his moderate centrism.

But Mr. Scholz has managed to turn what has long been the main liability for his party — co-governing as junior partners of Ms. Merkel’s conservatives — into his main asset: In an election with no incumbent, he has styled himself as the incumbent — or as the closest thing there is to Ms. Merkel.

“Germans aren’t a very change-friendly people, and the departure of Angela Merkel is basically enough change for them,” said Christiane Hoffmann, a prominent political observer and journalist. “They’re most likely to trust the candidate who promises that the transition is as easy as possible.”

With 25 percent in recent polls, Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats have overtaken the Greens, now lagging at 17 percent, and the conservatives at barely over 20 percent. But political analysts point out that this would hardly constitute a convincing victory.

“No one has ever become chancellor since 1949 with so little trust,” said Manfred Güllner, head of the Forsa polling institute, referring to the founding year of the Federal Republic of Germany after World War II.

“German voters are quite unsettled,” Mr. Güllner added. “After 16 years of a Merkel chancellorship that provided a certain sense of stability, we’re in a place we’ve never been before.”

On the campaign trail Mr. Scholz has spoken admiringly of the current chancellor. A slickly produced TV ad by the party shows him walking in front of a projected image of Ms. Merkel.

Mr. Scholz with Ms. Merkel in August. On the campaign trail Mr. Scholz has spoken admiringly of her. Credit…Maja Hitij/Getty Images

He has been photographed making the chancellor’s hallmark diamond-shaped hand gesture — the “Merkel rhombus” — and used the female form of the German word for chancellor on a campaign poster to convince Germans that he could continue Ms. Merkel’s work even though he is a man.

The symbolism isn’t subtle, but it is working — so well in fact that the chancellor herself has felt compelled to push back on it — most recently in what might be her last speech in the Bundestag.

Mr. Güllner, the pollster, said at least part of the recent surge in support for the Social Democrats comes from Merkel voters who are not happy with her party’s candidate, Armin Laschet, a conservative state governor who has repeatedly fumbled on the campaign trail.

“There is no real Scholz enthusiasm in Germany,” said Ms. Hoffmann. “His success is due primarily to the weakness of the other candidates.”

Unlike his rivals, Mr. Scholz hasn’t put a foot wrong in the campaign. He takes few risks and is controlled to the point that Germans have dubbed him the “Scholz-o-mat” — or “Scholz machine.”

Sticking to his message of stability has also made it harder for his opponents to attack him on past blunders, although some have tried. As mayor of Hamburg he took private meetings with a banker seeking a million euro tax deferment, an episode that has become part of a state investigation, and it was on his watch as finance minister that the fraudulent German fintech company Wirecard imploded.

But this has barely surfaced in the campaign. Instead, Mr. Scholz’s popularity has continued to rise.

Mr. Scholz was a socialist in the 1970s who gradually mellowed into a post-ideological centrist. First defending workers as a labor lawyer, then defending painful labor-market reforms and now co-governing with a conservative chancellor, his journey in many ways tracks that of his party.

In its 158-year-history the Social Democrats have been a formidable political force, fighting for workers’ rights, battling fascism and helping to shape Germany’s postwar welfare state. But after serving three terms as junior partners to Ms. Merkel, the party’s vote share had halved.

Unlike his rivals, Mr. Scholz hasn’t put a foot wrong in the campaign. He takes few risks and is controlled to the point that Germans have dubbed him the “Scholz-o-mat” — or “Scholz machine.” Credit…Gordon Welters for The New York Times

Gerhard Schröder, the last Social Democrat to become chancellor, won 39 percent of the vote in 2002. In 2005, when the Social Democrats entered their first coalition with Ms. Merkel, they were still winning 34 percent of votes; by 2017 that had shrunk to 20 percent.

But even as his party sank to a postwar low, Mr. Scholz became one of Germany’s most popular politicians.

It helped that as finance minister he controlled the government’s purse strings during the pandemic. After years of religiously sticking to Germany’s cherished balanced budget rule, he promised to bring out the “bazooka” to help businesses survive the pandemic, initially spending 353 billion euros, or about $417 billion, in recovery and assistance funds.

“Scholz has zero charisma but he radiates stability — and he handed out the money in the economic crisis,” said Andrea Römmele, dean of the Berlin-based Hertie School of Governance.

If current polls hold, the Social Democrats will finish first but will need two other parties to form a governing coalition. One would almost certainly be the Greens. As for the other, Mr. Scholz has all but ruled out the far-left Left Party, which would leave either the conservatives or — more likely — the free-market Liberal Democrats.

Mr. Scholz has offered some ideas on how he would govern differently, but the changes are relatively modest and might be further watered down by his coalition partners, analysts predict.

Mr. Scholz, who has served as Ms. Merkel’s finance minister and vice chancellor for the past four years, is in many ways more associated with the conservative-led coalition government than his own party. Credit…Gordon Welters for The New York Times

He has tried to woo his party’s core working-class voters by using “Respect” as one of his main campaign slogans. In his stump speech, he emphasizesthat people who earn as much as him should not get tax breaks. Instead, he wants to lower taxes for middle- and low-income earners and raise them modestly for those with incomes of more than 100,000 euros a year.

He promises to raise the minimum wage to 12 euros an hour (instead of the current 9.60 euros), build 400,000 homes a year (instead of the about 300,000 built in 2020) and pass a raft of climate measures, though without getting out of coal before 2038.

“Wewould not expect changes in taxes and spending to add up to a big additional fiscal stimulus,” wrote Holger Schmieding, chief economist for Berenberg Bank in a recent analysis of what a Scholz chancellorship would mean for financial markets. In a coalition with the Greens and the Liberals, he predicted, “the pragmatic Scholz himself would likely rein in the leftist inclinations” of his own party base.

Only the conservatives, desperately under pressure, have been arguing the opposite.

Even Ms. Merkel, who had said she wanted to stay out of the race, has recently felt compelled to distance herself from Mr. Scholz’s unabashed attempts to run as her clone.

There is “an enormous difference for the future of Germany between him and me,” Ms. Merkel said.

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escortSıhhiye escortRus escortMamak escortMamak escortGölbaşı escortsertleştirici haplarkent switch fiyatKeno Club Sigaraparliament aqua bluemarlboro double fusionGauloises Sigarakent switchdjarum blackLeader SigaraAnadolu yakası escortAtaşehir escortBostancı escortErenköy Escortavrupa yakası escortAtaköy EscortAvcılar EscortBahçeşehir Escortözel escortlaranal escortçıtır escortelit escortAnadolu Yakası escortAtaşehir escortbağdat caddesi escortBostancı escortGöztepe Escortİstanbul EscortKadıköy EscortKartal EscortKurtköy EscortMaltepe EscortPendik EscortŞerifali EscortTuzla EscortÜmraniye escortÜsküdar EscortAnadolu Yakası EscortAtaşehir escortBostancı EscortGöztepe EscortAvrupa Yakası EscortAksaray escortAtaköy EscortAvcılar Escortİstanbul EscortAtaşehir Elit EscortAtaşehir Esmer EscortAtaşehir Genç EscortAtaşehir Olgun EscortAtaşehir Sarışın EscortAtaşehir Şişman EscortAtaşehir Sınırsız EscortAtaşehir Ucuz EscortAtaşehir Yabancı EscortAteşehir Escort BayanBağdat Caddesi EscortBağdat 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escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortavrupa yakası escortsex hikayeleriadana escortadıyaman escortafyon escortağrı escortaksaray escortamasya escortankara escortantalya escortantep escortardahan escortartvin escortaydın escortbalıkesir escortbartın escortbatman escortbayburt escortbilecik escortbingol escortbitlis escortbolu escortburdur escortbursa escortçanakkale escortçankırı escortçorum escortdenizli escortdiyarbakır escortdüzce escortedirne escortelazığ escorterzincan escorterzurum escorteskişehir escortgiresun escortgümüşhane escorthakkari escorthatay escortığdır escortısparta escortistanbul escortizmir escortizmit escortkarabük escortkaraman escortkars escortkastamonu escortkayseri escortkıbrıs escortkilis escortkırıkkale escortkırklareli escortkırşehir escortkocaeli escortkonya escortkütahya escortmalatya escortmanisa escortmaraş escortmardin escortmersin escortmuğla escortmuş escortnevşehir escortniğde escortordu escortosmaniye escortrize escortsakarya escortsamsun escortsiirt escortsinop escortşırnak escortsivas escorttekirdağ escorttokat escorttrabzon escorttunceli escortzonguldak escorturfa escortuşak escortvan escortyalova escortyozgat escorterkeklerde sertleşmeye iyi gelen ilaçlarsertleştirici hap eczane fiyatlarıvega 100 mg hapfuck googledolandırıcı hesap satışıbacklink alToscanello Blu Anice AnasonToscanello CappuccinoToscanello Cioccolato ÇikolataToscanello GrappaToscanello LimoncelloToscanello MacchiatoToscanello Rosso CaffeToscanello RubinoToscanello VanilyaToscanello PuroToscanello Cappuccino PuroAvrupa yakası escortAksaray escortAtaköy escortAtaşehir escortAvcılar escortBahçelievler escortBahçeşehir escortBakırköy escortBaşakşehir escortBeşiktaş escortBeylikdüzü escortBostancı escortBüyükçekmece escortEsenyurt escortEtiler escortFatih escortHalkalı escortKadıköy escortKartal escortKüçükçekmece escortMaltepe escortMecidiyeköy escortMerter escortPendik escortRus escortŞirinevler escortŞişli escortTaksim escortTopkapı escortümraniye escortZeytinburnu escortgaziantep escortalanya escorttekirdağ escortşanlıurfa escortşanlıurfa escortsamsun escortbolu escortbodrum escortbeylikdüzü escortyozgat escortyalova escortvan escortuşak escorturfa escorttrabzon escorttokat escorttokat escortsivas escorturfa escortsakarya escortsakarya escortrize escortniğde escortniğde escortmuğla escortmuğla escortmarmaris escortmardin escortmardin escortmaraş escortmanisa escortmanisa escortkütahya escortkocaeli escortkocaeli escortkıbrıs escortkastamonu escortkars escortısparta escortgümüşhane escortgiresun escortgaziantep escortzonguldak escortzonguldak escortyozgat escortyalova escortvan escorttrabzon escorttekirdağ escortsivas escortsamsun escortordu escortmersin escortmaraş escortmalatya escortkütahya escortkuşadası escortkonya escortkayseri escortkastamonu escortısparta escorthatay escortgiresun escorteskişehir escorterzurum escorttekirdağ escortdiyarbakır 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escortgümüşhane escortgiresun escortrize escortgiresun escorteskişehir escorterzincan escortdiyarbakır escortdidim escortburdur escortbeylikdüzü escorttokat escortmersin escortmanisa escortmalatya escortbolu escortbeylikdüzü escortmalatya escortadana escortafyon escorteskişehir escorterzurum escorterzurum escorterzincan escortelazığ escortelazığ escortelazığ escortelazığ escortedirne escortedirne escortdüzce escortdiyarbakır escortdidim escortdenizli escortçorum escortçeşme escortçeşme escortçanakkale escortçanakkale escortçanakkale escortburdur escortbolu escortbodrum escortbodrum escortbalıkesir escortaydın escortartvin escortartvin escortantep escortantep escortalanya escortağrı escortafyon escortadana escortantalya escortalanya escortalanya escortAmazon Prime izleBeIN Connect izleBlutv izleDisney Plus izleexxen izleGain TV izleNetflix izleAmazon prime izleBlutv izleDisney Plus izlebeylikdüzü escorteryaman escortcaptain blackkalpli sigarasertleştirici hap eczane fiyatlarışişme bebeksertleşme sağlayıcı ilaçlar ve isimleriviagra fiyatManchester Double Drive SigaraKing Edward imperial puroadana escort1xbet kayıt1xbet casino1xbetpenis sertleştirici cinsel haplarescortAydın escortMuğla escortSinop escortTekirdağ escortYalova escortRize escortAmasya escortBalıkesir escortÇanakkale escortBolu escortErzincan escortVan escortYozgat escortZonguldak escortAfyon escortAdıyaman escortBilecik escortAksaray escortAğrı escortBitlis escortSiirt escortÇorum escortBurdur escortEdirne escortDüzce escortErzurum escortKırklareli escortGiresun escortIsparta escortTrabzon escortSivas escortŞanlıurfa escortTokat escortManisa escortOrdu escortOsmaniye escortArdahan escortKaraman escortBatman escortBayburt escortElazığ escortBingöl escortGümüşhane escortUşak escortIğdır escortBartın escortNevşehir escortKastamonu escortMaraş escortKırşehir escortMardin escortKırıkkale escortKarabük escortKars escortsertleştirici hap eczane520 kalpli sigara elmalı520 kalpli sigaras20 kalpli sigaraİstanbul escort bayanİstanbul escortİstanbul escortsEscort istanbulistanbul escort bayanİstanbul escortEscort istanbulistanbul escortEscort bayanBayan escortescortEscort bayanbayan escortescortAnkara escort bayanEscort ankaraEscort Bayan İstanbulümraniye escortüsküdar escortzeytinburnu escortkadıköy escortkağıthane escortkartal escortmaltepe escortkeçiören escortmanavgat escortalanya escortbodrum escortkuşadası escortdidim escortarnavutköy escortsilifke escortbelek escortşişli escortpendik escortkarşıyaka escortseyhan escortnilüfer escortesenler escortbeylikdüzü escortİstanbul escortİstanbul escort bayanEscort istanbulBayan escortEscort bayanescortseoboşalmayı geciktirici haplargeciktirici kremlergeciktirici spreylerpenis büyütücü haplarbayan azdırıcı damlabayan azdırıcı haperken boşalma geciktirici ilaçlarpenis büyütücü çeşitleribayan cinsel istek arttırıcılarcialis fiyatıviagra fiyatlarıbayan cinsel istek arttırıcılarerken boşalmayı geciktirici ilaç çeşitleripenis büyütücü ürün çeşitlerierken boşalmayı geciktirici ilaç çeşitleribayan cinsel istek arttırıcı damlageciktirici sprey çeşitlerien iyi geciktirici kremkadın istek arttırıcı damlaen iyi bayan azdırıcı ilaçcialis fiyatı eczaneviagra eczane fiyatıerken boşalmayı geciktirici haplargeciktirici krem çeşitleripenis büyütücü haplarcinsel gücü arttırıcı ilaçlarbayan azdırıcı ilaçlaren iyi geciktirici ilaç isimleripenis büyütücü kremen iyi bayan cinsel istek arttırıcılargeciktirici haplargeciktirici kremler çeşitlerikadın azdırıcı çeşitlerigeciktirici ilaç çeşitleripenis büyütücü çeşitlerieczane cialis fiyatıviagra eczane fiyatlarıbayan azdırıcı ilaçlaren iyi geciktiricilerpenis büyütücülerbayan uyarıcılarerken boşalmayı geciktiren ilaçlarpenis büyütücülerviagra eczane satış fiyatlarıeczane cialis fiyatıerken boşalmayı geciktirici ilaçlargeciktirici krem fiyatlarıgeciktirici sprey eczaneen etkili büyütücülerbayan istek arttırıcı çeşitlerien iyi bayan cinsel istek artırıcılarerken boşalmayı geciktirici ilaçcialis eczanecialis eczanede kaç tlADANA ESCORTANKARA ESCORTANTALYA ESCORTMERSİN ESCORTİZMİR ESCORTKAYSERİ ESCORTKONYA ESCORTAnadolu Yakası Escortavrupa yakası escortcialis fiyatıcinsel ereksiyon ilaçlarıcialis fiyatlarıviagra fiyatıcialis fiyatı eczaneFlynta 20 Mgkamagra 100 mgOrcafil 20 MgLifta 5 MgHardcis 5 MgLex 20 MgLevitra 20 MgPriligy 30 MgVigaroo 100 MgHardcis 20 MgAfilta 20 MgHardcis 20 Mgdegralifta 20 mgankara escortantalya escortizmir escortmersin escortCinsel sağlık ürünleriCinsel performans ürünleriGeciktirici ürünlerSertleştirici haplarKamagra jelKamagra jel fiyatKamagra jel eczaneVega 100 mgVega 100 mg fiyatViagraViagra fiyatViagra 100 mg fiyatViagra 30 lu fiyatCialisCialis fiyatCialis 20 mg fiyatCialis 100 mg fiyatCialis 30 lu tablet fiyatCialis 5 mg fiyatankara escortantalya escortizmir escortAdıyaman EscortArtvin EscortBilecik EscortBingöl EScortBitlis EscortBurdur EscortÇankırı EscortÇorum EscortGiresun EscortGümüşhane EscortKars EscortKastamonu EscortKırklareli EscortKırşehir EscortNevşehir EscortErzincan EscortNiğde EscortOrdu EscortSiirt EscortSinop EscortBayburt EscortKaraman EscortKırıkkale EscortBatman EscortŞırnak EscortBartın EscortArdahan Escortığdır EscortKarabük EscortOsmaniye EscortDüzce EscortKilis EscortAdana EscortAnkara EscortAntalya EscortAydın EscortBursa EscortDenizli EscortDiyarbakır EscortEskişehir EscortAntep EscortHatay EscortMersin Escortizmir EscortKayseri EscortKocaeli EscortKonya EscortMalatya EscortMardin EscortSakarya EscortSamsun EscortTrabzon EscortYalova EscortAdıyaman EscortAfyon EscortVan EscortAğrı EscortAmasya EscortBalıkesir EscortBilecik EscortBolu EscortBurdur EscortÇanakkale EscortEdirne EscortElazığ EscortErzincan EscortErzurum Escortısparta EscortKars EscortKastamonu EscortManisa EscortKütahya EscortMuğla EscortRize EscortSivas EscortTekirdağ EscortUrfa EscortOrdu EscortNevşehir EscortMaraş EscortZonguldak Escortadana escortalanya escortankara escortantalya escortaydın escortbursa escortçorlu escortdenizli escortdiyarbakır escortelazığ escorteskişehir escortgaziantep escortizmir escortkayseri escortkocaeli escortkonya escortmalatya escortmersin escortpendik escortsakarya escortsamsun escorttrabzon escortadana escortankara escortalanya escortantalya escortaydın escortbursa escortçorlu escortdenizli escortdiyarbakır escortelazığ escorteskişehir escortgaziantep escortistanbul escortizmir escortizmit escortkayseri escortkocaeli escortkonya escortmalatya escortmersin escortsakarya escortsamsun escorttrabzon escort520 Kalpli Sigara Kavunlu520 Kalpli Sigara Liçi Kral Meyvesicialis eczane fiyatı 2023viagra eczane fiyatı 2023free shopbayan azdırıcılarerken boşalmayı geciktiricilerviagra fiyatı 2023cialis fiyatı 2023eczanede satılan sertleştirici ilaçlarbeylikdüzü escortcialiscialiscialis 100 mgviagra 30 lu tabletkadın azdırıcıereksiyon haplarıgeciktirici spreypenis büyütmeviagrakamagracinsel ilaçlarcialis 5 mgcialis 20 mgcinsel eczanebayan azdırıcı eczaneistek arttırıcı damlacinsel güç arttırıcı ilaçlareczanelerde satılan geciktiricilerkamagra jelorjinal viagracialis 5 mgviagraeczane sağlıkcialis fiyatviagra fiyatkamagra jelcialis 100 mgviagra 30 lucialis 20 mggeciktirici spreybayan azdırıcı ilaçlarkadın azdırıcı damlasertleştirici ilaçlarpenis büyütücücialis 5 mgcialiscialis 5 mgKamagra jelCialis fiyatViagra fiyatEreksiyon haplarıCinsel sağlık ürünleriCinsel ilaçlarBayan azdırıcı damlaCialis fiyatViagra fiyatKamagra jelGeciktirici spreyCinsel performans artırıcı ürünlerBayan azdırıcı hapCialis 30 lu tabletpenis sertleştirici ilaç isimlericialis fiyatı 2023 eczaneviagra eczane satış fiyatı 2023lifta fiyatı eczanepenis sertleştirici ilaç çeşitlerieczane cialis fiyatıorijinal viagra fiyatıfx15 orijinal zayıflama hapıyapay kızlık zarı siparişvajina daraltıcı kremyalova escortmuğla escortaydın escorttrabzon escortkütahya escortçanakkale escortbalıkesir escortmanisa escorttekirdağ escortkahramanmaraş escortelazığ escortsivas escortşanlıurfa escorterzurum escortamasya escortvan escortrize escortgiresun escortordu escorttokat escortyozgat escortçorum escortmond sigarabayan azdırıcı damla çeşitlerikamagra jel eczane fiyatıafyon escortbalıkesir escortkütahya escortmanisa escortbolu escortmuğla escortbodrum escortmarmaris escortedirne escortkeşan escortriz escorterzincan escorthatay escortçorlu escortDating Escortkonya escortmersin escortadana escortbursa escortmalatya escortkayseri escortaydın escortMilano Coffee Sigara Kahve AromalıMilano Gum Sigara Sakız Aromalıoris sigaraelazığ escortkocaeli escortizmir escortkayseri escortgaziantep escortadana escortkonya escortümraniye escortizmit escorteskişehir escortmersin escortIstanbul Escortsamsun escortvan escortaydın escortedirne escortaksaray escortantalya escortescort antalyaescortAdana Escortadıyaman escortafyon escortağrı escortaksaray escortamasya escortankara escortantalya escortardahan escortartvin escortaydın escortbalıkesir escortpung hile satın albartın escortbatman escortbayburt escortbilecik 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